Wednesday, February 06, 2008

The Morning After

The Super Tuesday of the Primaries has gone by and there is still no result on the Democratic side. Clinton (Sen. New York) may have had a better day yday, but its Obama (Sen. Illinois) who now has the edge in the race. Obama also leads in the delegate count (not including Super Delegates). The race may stretch all the way to the National Convention. John McCain (Sen. Arizona) is certain to grab the Republican ticket. Good for him!

Looking at the results, Clinton has done well in states (CA, MA) that are never going to vote for a Republican in the general elections. Obama however is creating waves even in the reddest of all states, Idaho. Leading into the crucial primaries in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, Obama has lot more money, the black/youth vote and the satisfaction of silencing doubting thomases on his electability.

McCain is very weak on Economics and unless he somehow addresses that deficit, he'll be thrashed in the debates. He also needs to assuage the conservatives. Choosing Mitt Romney as VP might be a very bold and smart decision, though its unlikely. A McCain-Huckabee combo might compete for the lowest IQ ticket in the history of United States! Phil Gramm (economy), Sam Brownback (kansan) and my girl Condi Rice (black, woman) have their own merits.

On the democratic side, Clinton-Obama might be a dream ticket, but that'll be a disaster for Obama's personal career. Obama will have no room in a Bill Clinton co-presidency and Republicans don't lose to two democrats in a row. A Clinton-Ted Strickland (Ohio is a swing state) ticket is more likely. But if 'Democrats had any brains', they'll choose Obama at the national convention. Obama-Blanche Lincoln (moderate liberal, ranking senator, woman) ticket looks interesting.

But the most crucial factor in the November poll might be Immigration and hence Hispanics. You can normally expect them to vote sheep-like for Democrats. But a McCain-Brownback combo (having co-sponsored the 'Amnesty' bill) might give the democrats a run for their 'pesos'. Obama can counter that by choosing either Bill Richardson (Hispanic) or Janet Napolitano (Arizonan, woman). On the whole, lots more instore for the year ahead.

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