US Election prediction: Trump will win

I've taken a break from most social media. And I had stopped following US politics before Elon Musk got involved in the election cycle.

Still here's my prediction: Trump will win.

Here are my reasons:

1. If you follow news on Twitter, there are lots of credible polls that suggest Trump will get an electoral college win. There are also pollsters like Atlas Intel and Emerson who predict Trump winning every swing state. Some of the cautious observors like Mike Halperin and Robert Cahaly also think Trump will win, even if they rule out a 7 swing state sweep for Trump. Even seemingly "mainstream" polls suggest a tie or small Harris leads well within the margin of error.

2. Then there is early voting numbers. Republicans have massively changed their game and have put effort into early voting. This is in stark contrast to 2022, where they foolishly let Democrats repeat the vote by mail circus and failed to win the Senate.

3. I don't think Elon Musk will stick his neck out like this, only to lose. Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg have also tried to play safe. [All credible] Polls are unanimous - Trump has the edge. And Peter Thiel, who I believe is heavily involved in Trump's campaign, will not make the 2022 mistake again.

Why I and many others could go wrong:

1. Elections cannot be won when a huge voting population is livid. Women are still furious about the US Supreme Court setting Roe v Wade aside. Trump should have had a woman running mate. I have long suggested Joni Ernst. JD Vance brings zero new votes to Trump but infuritates women further. I don't think this pro-abortion vote is a game changer, but if Harris wins, it'll be because of this women vote.

Will Trump's second term be good?

As I joked few months ago, I don't want MAGA. I don't want "America" to become great again. I want MAMI. Modify America with Mass Immigration. I want USA to remain an economic colony (like Australia) without geopolitical hegemony.
Trump's presidency was one of the best for the world, because he did not start new wars and pursued peace to a large extent (Abraham accord, North Korea etc). But his policy towards Palestine is a red flag. I don't think Trump will even do lip service to Free Palestine and instead allow Israel to continue its genocide in Gaza. Israel has no right to exist and every Zionist occupying Palestine must be sent back to the countries they came from. It's possible Democrats embrace the Free Palestine cause more to spite President Trump, but I'm not too optimistic.
Also, the idea that USA should have tighter immigration is just wrong. USA is a colony and Americans (I mean those in Central and Latin America) should have the right to the lands and wealth of USA, even if its the white colonialists who created the wealth.

Let's see what the future and Tuesday have in store.

To prevent further sexual harassment, press charges.

Risking accusations of misogyny, I want to write about recent victims of sexual harassment.

1. Supreme Court interns allegedly harassed by a retired SC Judge don't want to press charges.

2. A journalist working for an organization which specializes in public exposes, was allegedly raped by her Editor but didn't press charges for a week and despite a national outrage and absence of a Sexual Harassment Committee in her office, still won't go to police herself.

3. A woman allegedly snooped/stalked by Gujarat govt officials at the instance of a 'saheb', is allegedly asking her father to write to NCW and GCW to claim that snooping was infact protection given to her and that there should be no investigation in this regard.

4. A senior executive of a IT services company which employs tens of thousands of high-skilled women, was accused of sexual harassment but was allowed to settle instead of being prosecuted. He went onto become the CEO of another company which also employs thousands of high-skilled women and was again accused of sexual harassment ... and again allowed to go without charges being pressed.

Now, I think about a quote allegedly from an accused in the Mumbai journalist rape incident. Apparently they had gang-raped 4 other poor women and warned them to never tell anyone and that this gave them the confidence to attempt again with this journalist. To their credit, the journalist or her male friend (i'm not sure), reported the incident to police.

What does this tell us? If victims don't want to go to police, what is the point of protesting or blaming the police who somehow have to protect women and children from half a billion men?

Sure, police stations are not known to be safe places for victims of sexual harassment. And I would like to see, among other things,

1. establishment of all women police stations with provision for women medical examiners and prosecutors,

2. online FIRs so that its registered before we go to a police station go give testimony/evidence and

3. More women operated transport (auto-rickshaws, taxis and buses) to reassure women of their safety.

But if SC interns won't press charges and a whole bunch of feminists keeping telling us that its up to the journalist to press charges or not against her editor, in an office which doesn't have SHC, I don't know what kind of progress we are expecting.

ps: The discussions and laws on this subject mostly seem to disregard men who get sexually harassed as children and in relatively less instances as adults.

Fixing the wrong machines: EVMs instead of ATMs

Early this evening I went to an ICICI bank ATM to withdraw some 'change'. Instead of entering 400, I entered 500 and pat came a single note!! I took it to a nearby medical shop and got a candy (tamarind flavor) instead of 1 rupee change!

I fail to understand why RBI and the govt have been unable to force retail banks to ensure liquidity in proper denominations. Why can't banks be forced to issue 20, 50 rupees denominations for say 500 rupees, per account per month on their ATMs?

When I was still in high school, my dad used to go withdraw money from a bank every month and will bring a bundle of 10 rupee bills (1000) and a packet of 1 or 2 rupee coins. I did that too from a Wells Fargo branch in Santa Monica (quarters) or the university quarter machines for my laundry.

But I wonder how easy it is for us (and the customer facing businesses) to get such change from an Indian bank. One of the last few times I went to a bank (HDFC Koramangala), I ended up carrying my bicycle inside the branch as a protest against their security not allowing my two wheeler to be parked in their two wheeler parking space.

While bank ATMs remain in their -5.0 version or something, some professional litigants and the equally indulgent judges are forcing the Election Commission to create a paper trail of some 250 million votes cast in our elections!!

No one except the most cynical politicos, have had a problem with our voter machines. Since these paper slips are not going to be issued to voters, wonder what is going to prevent Dr. Swamy from continuing to claim that EVMs are preset to vote for his opposing parties and print the paper slip likewise too?!! And as one former election commissioners observed, giving these paper slips instead to voters will be a constant nuisance with usual suspects protesting that they didn't press the button as recorded in the paper slip. Oh, well.

Bangalore Garbage crisis and my solution

Yesterday, I had a chance to listen to someone closely following the Bangalore garbage crisis. Hence this blog post.

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The following are the things I learned about the recent garbage crisis which stared few months back.

1. Bangalore is in the midst of changing garbage contractors from a mixed model to a segregated model. Current contractor has no obligation to process the garbage and convert into useful products. They can dump whatever they want in landfills around Bangalore.

2. Bangalore's capacity to make manure from wet waste is extremely under-utilized because the contractor is bringing all kinds of waste to these facilities, not just wet waste.

3. Some of the landfills in Bangalore have been closed due to protests. There is a story behind it. A BJP minister (Arvind Limbavali) was allegedly provoking the residents of a "landfill village" (think its Mavalipura) to extort money from a garbage contractor. NGOs grabbed the opportunity and ensured that Mavalipura residents (rightly) protested longer and forced a garbage crisis in Bangalore. Pollution control board also ensured closure of few land-fills.

4. BBMP engineers in-order to force the transfer of a BMTF investigator out of his job, encouraged the contractors to strike work. BMTF is a vigilance agency to check on BBMP.

5. Current contractors are being paid more money (above their contract) to clear accumulated garbage and ensure transition to new contractors. The D-date is still being negotiated and its gonna be a messy transition.

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I personally feel garbage segregation is an over-rated solution and a job killer. Any solution which is dependent on residents to segregate is doomed to fail in the long run, if at all it takes off. Especially when the city neither has the technology at scale nor the interested businesses to handle such segregated garbage. But left liberals are involved. Expect more "do it yourself" fad.

We need profit driven, industrial methods to convert mixed waste to usable products. The current ad-hoc and govt controlled, contractor system is neither creating jobs (lack of capital investment), nor properly converting garbage into useful products (manure, polimer oil, recycled plastic, paper etc). Instead lot of our garbage is going directly into landfills and ruining the lives of villagers around Bangalore.

My proposed solution is to completely privatize garbage disposal to large corporations. Garbage and construction waste disposal, along with sand contracts should be awarded to few (say four) large competing companies through an auction. Including construction waste disposal and sand sourcing contract is to make the business profitable and attractive to companies. Those two businesses are currently run only by mafias.

We should invite multinational companies like Veolia (remember Onyx in Chennai?) to participate in these auctions. They have to quote an offer price at which they'll BUY the garbage of the entire city. They'll be licensed to grab whatever is left unattended on the streets of Bangalore (and from garbage bins/bags ofcourse). These companies will be allowed to deploy armed guards on garbage trucks to protect from sand/construction mafia. They'll be also penalized for not grabbing enough garbage from the city and leaving the city unclean.

If none of the companies is willing to take the above contracts for making money from garbage and insist on BBMP paying for disposing garbage, then we have to pay the lowest such bid.

My top 10 Ideas to reform Higher Education

1. Abolish 3 year Bachelor's degrees. Make them 4 year degrees with mandatory projects, electives and internship.

2. Abolish poly-technique institutes and instead allow colleges to offer 2 year diplomas. Abolish ITIs and bring those kids into vocational streams in the 10+2 system.

3. Prevent colleges from offering Master's programs. Instead only let universities (not even the mostly single stream institutes like IITs) offer Master's and Doctoral degrees. Ensure universities only employ Professors/Lecturers with doctoral degrees. Make thesis mandatory in Master's programs.

4. Hand over all govt run, single stream institutes like IITs, IISc, NITs, IIITs, AIIMS, JIPMER, NIMHANS etc to CSIR. Make admission to these institutes conditional on joining govt research programs like DRDO, ISRO, CDAC etc or 2 years government service.

5. Expand the Central University system. Let private universities flourish. A university by definition must have programs in science, engineering, arts, medicine, management and law.

6. Abolish affiliate universities. Let state level College Education Boards conduct exams and offer bachelor's degrees and diplomas in the name of the board and the respective college.

7. Make standards 9-12 part of High School. Let students continue to the next class, even if they fail one or more courses. This will help decrease dropout rates. Let the grades be based on 4 year final exam aggregate performance. Not just 10th and 12th.

8. Encourage 4 year B.Ed, 2 year M.Ed programs and Diplomas in education and research. Make IIMs offer PG diplomas in Education. Privatise IIMs and NLS or merge them with a Central University each.

9. Encourage private school boards. CBSE and state boards should compete with a private ICSE and new commercial boards (say run by ETS, NIIT).

10. Abolish minority educational institutions. Abolish all kinds of reservations in private educational institutions at all levels.

10 Reasons why Kashmir must be given the Right to Self-determination

1. Kashmir was already Independent in 1947.

Pakistan and India invaded it. India could have helped to protect Kashmiri Sovereignty from invading Pakistanis. Instead India blackmailed the Dogra King to join the Indian Union.

2. India promised a Plebiscite and then reneged on its promise.

There really is no excuse for this. Pakistan is more than willing to withdraw its forces from POK, if India did so from IHK. There is even a UN mission (UNMOGIP) established specifically to monitor troop positions in Kashmir.

3. The Betrayal of 1953.

India betrayed Kashmir in 1953 by going back on many of the terms of the 1948 accession. Karan Singh (son of Maharajah Hari Singh, an Indian puppet and even today a Congress leader) dismissed Sheikh Abdullah, the Prime Minister of Kashmir, without allowing him the opportunity to prove his majority in the assembly. The Sheikh will spend the next 11 years in Jail (till 1964), 3 years (1965-1968) under house arrest and another 18 months (1970-71) exiled in South India (Kodaikanal).

4. India makes cunning deals with two Kashmiri families; never with the people.

India's involvement with Kashmir is mostly through deals with two families, Maharajah Hari Singh family or the Abdullah family. Never with the people of Kashmir. There is no reason to believe Kashmiris supported Hari Singh's decision to accede to India or Sheikh Abdullah's decision (in 1974 after 15 years spent in jails) to drop the Plebiscite demand.

5. India continuously rigged elections in Kashmir until 2002.

Or didn't conduct elections at all. When separatists contested elections, India rigged the polls to defeat them. India also claims that separatists who contest elections under the Indian constitution are accepting Kashmir's accession to India! Worse, India even claims that people merely voting in the elections, is evidence of their accession to India. Most Kashmiris reject this assertion.

6. Kashmiri Pandits are ... well, Kashmiris.

Pandits are a very small minority community who don't necessarily support the Kashmiri freedom struggle. They were harmed by predominantly non-Kashmiri militants from Pakistan. Some Kashmiri's did try to save Pandits from the militants. Nevertheless, the Kashmiri civil society will have to do more to accommodate the interests of Pandits. And these Pandits can very well vote (from refugee camps in Jammu or Delhi) to keep Kashmir within the Indian Union, if they want to.

7. Human Rights violations.

Almost every government or human rights organization in the world has called out India for gross human rights violations in Kashmir. Even Indian media report staged killings, fake encounters, disappearances and custodial murders by the Army, CRPF and the erstwhile STF of the J&K police. While some misdemeanor by Armed forces is expected in any conflict, India has provisions like AFSPA which give the Armed forces unlimited powers (and near complete judicial immunity) to harass the civilians. 7 Indian states are currently under such Military rule.

8. India doesn't trust Kashmiri Police.

Why isn't India allowing Kashmiris to police themselves? Militancy that raged since 1989 mostly stopped in 2002. Why are so many outsiders (Army/CRPF) still there? One possible explanation is that India doesn't trust Kashmiris to make a strong police force out of them. And India offers to train the Afghan Army!

9. There are precedents - East Timor, Eastern Europe

Independence movements are not old history book stuff. There are contemporary examples of Republics letting some of their citizens to form separate states. Indonesian occupation of East Timor is remarkably similar to that of Kashmir.

10. Indian Republic is not a Kashmiri concern.

The argument that Indian Republic will fall apart or get balkanized if we let Kashmir go, doesn't wash. India's failures to protect the liberty of people in the North-East is not really a Kashmiri concern. Its India which has to sort out the mess. I support referendums to resolve such issues as Nagalim or Telangana too.

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And finally, a part of me wishes that Kashmiris will vote to stay in the Indian Union instead of choosing Independence (most likely) or merger with Pakistan. But its Kashmiris who have to decide for themselves.

A place where the will of the people isn't reflected in the Union or its Government is neither a Republic nor a Democracy.

ps 1: I have deliberately used the word Kashmir instead of Jammu and Kashmir. In general, Kashmir refers to the Kashmiri speaking regions, Kashmir Valley, the surrounding mountains and POK.

ps 2: The people in the plains of Jammu, plains of POK, rugged hills of Gilgit-Baltistan (extending to Siachin and Kargil) and the Ladakh plateau will also have to vote in the referendum for Kashmiri Independence. Hence all these regions will first have to vote in a referendum to formally dismantle the J&K state. Only if they want to, ofcourse.

The Case against loony liberal hijacking of Bt Brinjal

The following is a comment I wrote in what looks like a left liberal blog. The author had provoked me on twitter. I'm disappointed that the loony liberal fringe has hijacked an issue of life and death to the farmers, and is using it to further the failed ideals of socialism.

I see your interest in the subject is political rather than health or environment. your rant against the likes of walmart while discussing bt. brinjal, exposes your prejudices. not a good start.

do you have any objections to bt. brinjal on health grounds? i see you have mentioned none.

ethical reasons are not health reasons. the govts job is foremost to ensure that bt. brinjal doesn't harm people's health. labeling is not a health requirement. if the govt is not convinced of the safety of bt. brinjal, no labeling wud do. if its not safe on health grounds, it cannot be approved.

labeling is merely to offer a choice to people who oppose GM crops for political, ethical or environmental reasons. its like labels saying vegetarian or halal cut.

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>> Once Bt Brinjal comes in, it will be quickly followed by corn, Jowar (Sorghum), rice, Okra and others.

so you have no case against brinjal? and are merely creating controversies to feed future political agendas?

>> Going by what the experts say, GM foods are not the only option at all to alleviate our food needs. In fact, the world can well do without them.

forget the world. european farmers aren't committing suicide by drinking pesticides. is your ideology more important than the lives of farmers? in anycase, major agricultural countries like US, Brazil, China are allowing GM crops as required.

>> If the Government was really serious about providing food why have they still not taken any major steps to aggressively push totally non-controversial

this is typical socialist rant. govt cannot solve all our problems. private sector, in this case Mahyco Seed has come up with a solution. that solution shud be analyzed on its merit, not based on some wacko political ideology.

>> And, does it mean that without GM foods, hunger and death are an inevitability for our people?

oh, blime. show me the great alternative scientific solution that you have hidden beneath your pillow. i assure you of all help to take that technology to the farm fields [after it passes health tests].

>> IF GM technology did not exist or if it was already proved to be harmful, what would the Government have done? Worse, if later on it is conclusively found that the GM foods are not desirable, what would we do?

1. GM technology exists.
2. it has not already been proven harmful.
3. if its not desirable (desirable from which perspective?) on health grounds, we'll ban it. your inability to prove something shud not stand in the way of offering a meaningful solution to the farmers.

i don't know how old your are. but I'm certain, ppl wud have protested against Norman Borlaug, Swaminathan et al when the golden wheat and IR rice varieties were introduced in the 60s. your ilk was was proved wrong then.

and I hope more farmers (who escaped suicide) and better nutritioned children wud live to tell the current tale.

Play the Great Game

As expected Obama wants to vote 'Present' on the AfPak war. By questioning the strategy of celebrated US generals, including Gen. David Petraeus, he is pitting the liberal anti-war democrats against his Generals. This is what happens when you put a community organizer (aka a radical) as commander in chief. A C-in-C is not supposed to publicly question the strategy of his own Generals.

Some Republicans have openly wished for Gen. Petraeus to be the Conservative candidate against Obama in 2012. It looked very unlikely a few weeks ago. But if Obama tries to betray his Generals in public, Petraeus may well take the plunge.

But this post is not about American political games. Its about the Great Game. Played as always in Central Asia, Iran and now in AfPak. What is India's strategy in the Great Game?

As I suggested few years ago, a nuclear armed Iran is in India's best interests and will stabilize the region. In anycase nobody can argue against Iran's inherent right to protect itself against Israeli and US aggression. The only problem is that Iran hasn't yet opted out of NPT, signed by its pre-revolutionary Shah government.

On the AfPak war, we need a bold long term strategy. The goal is to balkanize Pakistan and take parts east of Indus for ourselves. As I wrote here, we want Kashmir, Punjab, Sind and Gandhara to return to the Indian Union and Pakhtunkhwa, Baluchistan and Balawaristan to become Independent.

Manmohan Singh's sellout on Baluchistan in Shram-al Shek and his silence on the recent Pakistani moves in Gilgit-Baltistan are well documented. So I don't expect him to do anything in Pakhtunkhwa. Anyway here's my plan.

India should propose a SAARC peace keeping force for Afghanistan. Europeans want a way out of Afghanistan and we shall provide one. SAARC countries should deploy not less than 3,00,000 troops in Afghanistan. Remember, Afghanistan is also a member of SAARC.

Just as NATO forces have divided duties across Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, Lanka and Nepal shall take responsibilities in the non-Pashtun areas of Afghanistan. And guess what, we should let Pakistan takeover the Pashtun areas. Let US and Pakistani forces continue to operate in Pakhtunkhwa. If US pulls back and lets Pakistan to install a Talibani regime out of Kandahar, so be it.

Its a win-win situation for all. 1. Europe gets out. 2. US either plays and wins or gets an alibi to cut and run. Namely blaming Pakistan. 3. Pakistan gets to talibanize atleast half of Afghanistan and get its strategic depth back.

Now what do we get? We get a hold in Afghanistan proper. Afghani is a persian word which doesn't necessarily include Pathans. Lets try to protect the non-Pashtun areas from the Taliban. Afterall, we supported the erstwhile Northern Alliance.

But more importantly, Pashtun nationalism is the surest way to unravel the Pakistani non-state. Remember we once 'threw Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, Khudai Kidmadgars and the Pathans in general to the Pakistani wolves'. Now let us help Pathans on either side of the Durand line to come together. In anycase, Baluchis have proved ineffective and Balawaristan seems a long shot.

Ofcourse its a gamble. Will the unified Pashtuns eventually turn against Pakistanis and demand separation or continue the vegetative state in which they live now? But whats wrong in trying. After all, this is the Great Game and we ought to gamble.

The State of the Wannabe states!

In response to popular demand (one person asked), I'm elucidating my stand on the 4 wannabe states viz Kashmir, Tibet, Palestine and Eelam. In supporting a movement, three things are important to me.

1. Demonstrable injustice in the status quo.
2. Presence of an inclusive democratic political leadership, which can control the armed wing if one exists.
3. The economic/democratic viability of the wannabe nation state.

Kashmir: Independence. (3/3)

Injustice: This is straight forward. India and Pakistan invaded an independent nation in 1948. Neither the King nor the people of Kashmir wanted to be part of either states. India signed a dubious accession agreement with a King who demostrably had no support among his subjects. Even that agreement was conditional on a plebiscite. India never came good on that commitment.

Leadership: Hurriyat has consistently lead the people with a visible control over its armed element Hizbul Mujhahideen. Even the mainstream parties, National Conference and PDP have demanded a very high degree of autonomy. In Mirwaiz Farooq, Yaseen Malik, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, the new nation will be in very capable hands.

Viability: Democracy in this new state is likely to be exceptional. Tourism, trans-asia trade, agriculture and hydro-electric power can sustain this economy.

Tibet: Independence. (2.5/3)

Injustice: A barbaric movement called 'Communism' invaded this independent nation and subjected its people to the control of an external race, the Hans. Considering the Chinese state will (and has tried to) destroy every symbol of Tibetan nationhood namely religion, language and its unique culture, the question of rapprochement with China does not arise.

Leadership: Although Dalai Lama is an apostle of peace and non-violence and the Tibetan movement presently has no armed resistance, the leadership is a bit weak. The Tibetan prime minister in exile is just a lackey of the Dalai Lama. Besides Dalai Lama represents a feudal system where monks lorded over unfortunate but willing commoners. Dalai Lama should relinquish the political role he still plays.

Viability: When independent, Tibet will be one of the largest countries of the world with an abundance of natural resources. The new state is very likely to be a Democracy and probably one of the most peaceful states on earth.

Palestine: One state solution, meaning no Palestinian state. (1/3)

Injustice: The Zionist movement flooded this land of the Arabs and made them second class citizens in their own land. While Jews have always lived in Palestine and some level of Jewish immigration would have been acceptable, what Arabs got was a raw deal. Why should Arabs pay for the crimes of the socialists and communists in Europe?

Leadership: Palestinian movement has been plagued by poor leadership throughout its existence. Even the few reasonable leaders it got like Yasser Arafat were terrorists. Besides Palestinians were stupid enough to be cheated by their Arab neighbors and rejected every reasonable solution put forth by the Jews. Presently there is no credible Palestinian leadership.

Viability: An independent Palestine will start and forever remain a third-world state of squalor and poverty. Joining a unified secular state will instantly make them first-world citizens with every opportunity at their disposal. After-all some 1.5 million Arabs already live peacefully inside Israel. Besides any solution short of the unified state will deny both Arabs and Jews, legitimate and complete access to the land of their forefathers.

Eelam: Total Annihilation of LTTE (0/3)

Injustice: None. Even at the height of Sinhalese majoritarianism from the 1950s thru 83, an independent Eelam state was an unjustifiable demand. The Srilankan Tamil struggle should have been on the lines of the US Civil rights movement and the South African anti-apartheid struggle.

Whatever legitimate demands the Tamils had, were satisfactorily met in the 13th amendment of the Srilankan constitution. Additional demands (if any) can easily be made and suitable justice sought in a vibrant democracy like Srilanka.

Leadership: When Tamils needed a Martin Luther King Jr or a Nelson Mandela, they got a scoundrel in Prabhakaran. I wonder if there has ever been a tyrant in the history of the world, who sought a socialist authoritarian regime with zero democracy, even before his wannabe state was born! The rest of the Tamil leaders have had very little credibility or have been eliminated by the Tamils themselves.

Viability: Imagine a country full of racists!! These people who refuse to live peacefully with their Sinhalese co-nationalists, are not capable of forming and governing their own nation state. Agriculture, Fishing and smuggling can sustain this economy but such a nation, born out of hatred, will forever remain a pariah state.

Le Lignes Rouge!

Update: Since this post was written Northern Areas have been renamed Gilgit-Baltistan and NWFP is gonna be renamed Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa.

I recently watched a heist movie called "Le Cercle Rouge". Jean-Pierre Melville made up a story where Buddha drew a circle with red chalk and said "When men, even unknowingly, are to meet one day, whatever may befall each, whatever the diverging paths, on the said day, they will inevitably come together in the red circle."

Funny enough, there exists a circle in the ancient Utharapada region of the Vedas where the future of the world may well be decided. And this circle is characterized by two lines standing by the names of Messrs, Durand and Radcliffe. The Lines that should never have been drawn, let alone legitimized as national borders.

Pashtuns have never recognized the Durand Line, the purported Afghan-Pakistan border. Someday Hindus will also have to reject the Radcliffe line, the supposed India-Pakistan border. By Hindus I mean the Hindustani speaking people of Pakistan and India. Indus river should be the only legitimate border in this region.


Pakistani map presently reads like this. Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and NWFP make up the four provinces. FATA, 'Azad' Kashmir, Northern Areas and NCT Islamabad make up the rest. This should instead read, Punjab, Sindh, Gandhara and Kashmir states of India, Pakhtunkhwa province of Afghanistan and the independent nations of Baluchistan and Balawaristan.

Pakhtunkhwa:

Pakhtunkhwa is the name suggested for the North West Frontier province. Pakhtun is ofcourse Pashtun. The areas west of the Indus in NWFP, FATA and the Pashtun speaking regions of South-eastern Afghanistan should form the future Pakhtunkhwa province of Afghanistan. This region on either side of the Durrand line is the theater of US/NATO operations.

Gandhara:

The Hindko speaking parts of NWFP, east of the Indus, should form the future Gandhara state of India. Ancient Gandhara extended well into Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir but the Hazara region should suffice now. Abbottabad should be the capital of this state. Taxilla in Western Punjab should also be included in this state.

Baluchistan:

India may already be helping Baluchistan gain independence from Pakistan. Iran and India should join hands in the creation of this independent state. The state suffered a serious setback with the killing of Nawab Bugti by General Musharraf. Its time to revive nationalism there.

Balawaristan:

The Northern Areas region comprising Gilgit and Baltistan is the forgotten child of the Kashmir conflict. While Pakistan turned POK into 'Azad' Kashmir, Northern Areas are directly under its control. This region north of the Indus, through which the Karakoram Highway passes, should be the Independent Balawaristan nation.

Enough day dreaming for today!

Questions

1. Why didn't terrorists surface again to kill the nihilists who rallied in Mumbai?
2. Which moron is spreading the canards about the so-called 49-O option of no-Vote?
3. What will be the best punishment for the traitors who fail to vote, on purpose?
4. Why is the prime culprit in this whole saga, NSA Narayanan not being targeted by the media?
5. Who was the politician who reportedly made the NSG wait for hours, so that he can accompany them to Mumbai?
6. How would have Narayanan been punished in the middle ages? Stoning? Mob lynching? Impalement? Crucification?
7. Was Manmohan Singh briefed by R&AW and/or Narayanan of the possible sea-borne attack on the Taj? If not, why? If yes, shouldn't we repeat step 6 for Manmohan?
8. Was the Nariman House deliberately ignored for two days into the attack becos Jewish killings are the best propaganda material against Pakistan?
9. Why doesn't spreading rumors of terrorist attacks on live television land Rajdeep Sardesai in jail?
10. When did you get to know, that most of the (reported) casualties occurred within the first hour at CST and not at the luxury hotels?

Anti-terror ideas for the BJP

When asked to comment on India conducting a joint terror investigation with the ISI, Arun Jaitley quipped "why not with the Lashkar?". Exactly!

Anyway, here's my list of anti-terror ideas for the people who matter. Hope BJP gets these things done.

Chains of command:

1. Create a post called National Police Chief or something. Find a Bezu Fache to head it! Just as Cabinet Secretary is the highest ranked IAS officer in the country, this Police chief will be the highest ranked IPS officer.
2. He/she will be the Commander-in-chief of the all central police forces. CRPF, CISF, RAF, NSG, SPG etc. The directors of CBI and the national narcotics control board will also report to him/her.
3. This post essentially takes the home secretary out of the police operations. I cannot imagine a uniformed officer taking orders from a babu.
4. Create zonal police commands similar to the Army commands. All the state DGP's will report to the zonal commander, in addition to the state government.
5. State governments cannot appoint or remove any IPS officer without the recommendation of an appointments committe comprising Chief Secretary, state DGP and the zonal C-in-C. Zonal C-in-C can veto any appointment.
6. Just like BSF and Coast guard can be placed under Army command during a war, all the state police forces can be placed under the command of the Central Police Chiefs. During terror attacks, riots, elections etc.
7. All the above will put Law and Order in the concurrent list instead of the state list. Thats the way it should be.

Force restructuring:

1. CBI should be the nodal agency to investigate all terrorist attacks. State governments should have no jurisdiction over what cases CBI can and cannot investigate. No more dowry cases to the CBI please.
2. Merge RPF with CISF, ITBP and SSB with BSF and all remaining quasi-military wings like Rashtriya Rifles, Assam Rifles etc with the Army.
3. Every officer in the state police forces should be given a Short Service Commission style opportunity to serve in any of the central police forces. Presently only the IPS officers go on deputation.
4. Remove NSG from VIP security, but SPG (a part of NSG) can continue to protect the Prime Minister. Each police force in the country must have a commando unit. CRPF shall protect central ministers, CISF for business and sports people and state commandos for politicians.

Legal reforms:

1. Bring back POTA by all means. And make it stronger. Lie detector and narco analysis tests should be admissible in a court as secondary evidence. Anyone who retracts a confession given to the police in a court should be additionally charged with perjury.
2. Create a Central Prosecution Commission. This will be similar to the vigilance and information commissions we already have. This CPC will scrutinize the work of all public prosecutors in the country and recommend punitive measures against incompetent and unwilling prosecutors.
3. Establish the National Judicial Commission ofcourse. This body besides appointing judges will take more bureaucratic work away from Chief Justices. Summer court holidays must be abolished. Each Judge can go on a month long sabbatical every few years. NJC will handle such scheduling.

10 reasons to never vote for Congress

1. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
2. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
3. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
4. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
5. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
6. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
7. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
8. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
9. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.
10. You don't want your friends and relatives blown to pieces.

Spread the wealth around. Legalize Stealing!

Finally, the candidates are making sense in the US election. There is little doubt that Obama is a socialist and if left unchecked will ruin the US economy (or whats left of it). His radical left wing activism is completely at odds with the American Dream. I'm glad there is a discussion on Socialism with barely a week left for the polling day.

A surprising majority of people don't seem to get the fairly obvious point that Socialism is immoral and illegal. The notion that hardworking part of the country should cover the backs of the lazy, incompetent losers is at once astonishing and outrageous. Governments aren't supposed to be run by Robinhoods.

People often confuse the welfare states of Scandinavia with 'real' states with limited resources that need to be managed judiciously. People need to understand what is an acceptable welfare measure and what is plain stealing. Universal Healthcare is acceptable. Only if its meant for all the citizens. Not when its so substandard that people who pay for it with their hard-earned tax money simply cannot use it.

Subsidized education is acceptable. Rebate checks for people who don't even pay taxes is plain robbery. Free electricity to farmers who otherwise don't have natural irrigation is acceptable. Loan waiver of 60,000 crores isn't. Easy credit for farmers and cooperative societies is acceptable. Outlandish interest rates on Post Office savings isn't. And I can go on and on.

US republicans are one of the last people left on the planet who understand the term governance. No man on earth is a slave of the government. A government is just an arrangement to achieve things that require mutual cooperation of the citizens. Defending against enemy attacks, printing money or maintaining public roads etc. For this the Government can levy reasonable taxes. But it has no business "spreading the wealth around".

Having said all this, I'm not denying the fierce urgency of eliminating poverty and giving millions of people a shot at happiness within their lifetimes. Governments can very well create opportunities for the poor to succeed with such policies as reservations or subsidized education. But the only faster way, the hard earned money of the rich can reach the poor is through charity.

Coming back to the US elections, irrespective of Obama's past as a loony left wing class warfare activist, I do want him to win. Because John McCain simply doesn't qualify. But Obama is taking office at the most inopportune time as for the economy goes. Either he can ruin his presidential legacy or let his economic policies ruin America. I hope he has the decency to keep his failed ideology outside the Oval office.

The One on Puffs

Kudos to Anbumani Ramadoss. Thanks to his zeal, we'll have a very sensible ban on public smoking from tomorrow. I'm no fan of enacting laws that cannot be enforced. And this smoking ban is very unlikely to save my nostrils. But the larger point is how our laws should be.

Smokers have the right to puff their way to death. So any blanket ban on the use/sale of Tobacco cannot be justified. But the argument that people, especially workers, have the right to a smoke free environment is spot on. Laws should protect the rights of individuals. In this case, a smoker's right to kill himself and my right to save myself.

Ramadoss is also right in criticizing laws that deem homosexuality as criminal. Really, how dare the government and the courts interfere with people's sexual preferences. I'm appalled such a nonsensical law has survived all this while without a successful legal challenge.

Having said that homosexuality is not normal behavior. Its just a medical condition like trans-genders. A genetic misfiring which goes against the laws of natural selection and useless in the advancement of the human gene. So, no thanks to gay-parades.

Incidentally, California is gonna vote on the question of banning gay-marriage next month. A court there had allowed gay-marriages recently. This is a tricky issue. I'm ok with gay-marriage as long as gay couples are denied tax and other family related benefits enjoyed by heterosexual couples.

Anyway, Puff apparently is also a slang for the homosexual male in the UK.

Big Five go Caput!

Today marks the end of an era. Less than a year ago, five American investment banks were marquee names on Wall Street. Today none exist!!

Bear Stearns went to JP Morgan Chase. Lehman went up in flames. Merill Lynch went to Bank of America. And today the last two, Goldman and Morgan Stanley have been allowed to become 'Bank holding companies'.

And among the Big Five industries, Mortgage, Insurance, Mutual Funds, Investment Banks and Commercial Banks, only the last retains a modicum of respect and customer confidence. So is this the failure of capitalism? Should the world embrace that abomination called Socialism and rein the market forces in with stringent regulation? Obviously no. But that discussion can wait.

I think the root cause of all this turmoil is the greed of the middle class. And worse, the governments especially the socialist ones seem to be actively encouraging this middle class rat race to procure gaudy wealth. Lets take two examples.

Credit Cards: Why on earth does any one in India need a credit card? There is no such thing as Credit history here. So for most people credit cards only have a nuisance value. Ofcourse there are some morons who spend nearly all or over their monthly salary and need Credit cards to get them close to the next pay day. How many people who use credit cards today would take a personal loan from friends? Credit Cards take away the shame associated with hand-to-mouth loans.

Housing Loans: I have never understood why governments should offer tax incentives to people who are stupid enough to spend money they don't even have. One can understand if the government encourages people to save. But tax breaks to spend?! And this, when every employee's house rent is actually paid by their employers as HRA. Weird, ain't it?

Coldest State, Hottest Governor!

That apparently appears on license plates in Alaska! Sarah Palin, a gun-totting, moose hunting, pro-life, hockey-mom of five is an incredible choice for Veep.

The American Presidential race has become interesting again, bcos between Obama and McCain, there was no race. People must be incredibly stupid to vote for McCain. But this election is now gonna be about the base instincts of the people and not the candidates.

How much can Sarah rock the Obama 'elitist' boat? Will the grannies dreaming of Woman Presidency in their life time stay loyal Democrats now? Will the blue collar belt which sees no hope in Obama, get swayed by the Alaskan 'First Dude' who still works on the North slope oil rigs? Will the gigantic evangelical vote machine run over the democrats as it did in 2004?

On the democratic side, Biden is a safe choice. But I wish Obama had listened to me and chosen Blanche Lincoln instead. Lincoln would have rocked every base thats threatening Obama now.

Anyway this Fall we're gonna see a political fist fight and that can only be interesting. I guess Obama will sweat but when he stands on the steps of Capitol Hill on a cold January morning, American democracy will again be their pride and the world's envy.

And finally, it so happens that I have visited the home towns of all the four people on the tickets. Sedona, Arizona (McCain), Hawaii (Obama), Wasilla, Alaska (Palin), Wilmington, Delaware on I95 (Biden). Not bad!

Also see, The Morning After.

4 months, 3 weeks and 2 days

No, this is not a review of the hard hitting Romanian movie 4 luni, 3 saptamâni si 2 zile. That movie shook me no end and I have already reviewed it here (Tamil) and added it to my all time favorites list here.

This is about the current debate on Abortions in India, apropos the petition filed by a couple in Mumbai to abort their 26 week pregnancy. The Law doesn't allow abortions after 20-24 weeks unless the mother's life is in danger.

Well, it turns out the doctors may have made a erroneous diagnosis in that case and the court has rejected their petition. But I heard that Mother's rhetoric on Television which went like "if my kid grows up defective and asks me why did you give birth to me, if you knew I will be born this way?".

Although this is a really grey area, I think the above argument is not morally sustainable. By this logic, we should allow mothers to kill female fetuses and new-borns because the child is probably condemned to life long poverty and discrimination. Or say babies born with congenital disorders.

4,3,2 made me read a lot on abortions, to the point I became a fan of Ann Coulter and view Republicans with a lot more respect! I'm now neither pro-choice nor pro-life. I'm something like pro-Mom where the society allows her to make the decision while actively encouraging her to keep the pregnancy.

Many western nations have help yourself laws, where women can abort at will. India and few other countries allow conditional abortions (in India, the mother merely has to offer a reason). At least in theory, this should get the Mother access to a counselor. So all's well.

But the 4,3,2 type 1980's Romanian horrors are still common-place in countries like Nicaragua, El-Salvador and Chile. And ofcourse lots of Indian mothers still turn to mid-wives with disastrous consequences. Anyway India is better-of with the recent debate.

Aside: Folks in Bengaluru may wanna check out this German Film Week.

Obama-Lincoln 08!

Many people don't understand why Hillary Clinton is the most hated woman in the United States. Is it that difficult to grasp? On the day history was made, this evil-witch of a woman talks of "winning the popular vote", of how Obama "ran" a wonderful campaign (not "won") and how she will "not be making any decisions tonight (tuesday)".

Anyway coming to Obama, I think he will be president by default. Americans must be incredibly stupid to vote McCain ahead of Obama. But nevertheless Obama has few chinks in his armor. His inability to win big states and near total rejection by the blue-collar voters can potentially surprise him in November.

My advice would be to "stop giving advice" to 40-something working class men. It simply doesn't work. An inspirational speech might get college girls to shriek and old women to cry. But it simply pisses off fat-bald-working men watching TV over a couple of beers.

They don't need reminding how better their lives could have been with a bit of hope and vision. They just need excuses to blame their wretched lives on others. Obama should rather do small talk in cafeterias and town hall meetings to overcome the 'elitist' label that has come stuck on him.

And finally to the Veep selection. Obama would be commiting a major harakiri if he were to choose Hillary. Any man in his position would feel about Hillary just as he would about a big rat in a sewage pipe! So if he still chooses her, it would be a complete sell-out for the sake of power.

I'm actually surprised that not many people are talking about Senator Blanche Lincoln as Obama's running mate. If this is "change, we can believe", why not reinforce it with a young, very accomplished southie-woman? And that too one of the youngest Governors and Senators in US History!

Senator Lincoln is a great orator, a moderate democrat (Obama is considered too liberal, infact marxist!) and a second-term senator. Ofcourse a woman and that too an Arkansan on the ticket could blow Hillary's brains out, but is that such a bad thing?

Dumber than Dubya!

India or rather its media and polity have achieved the impossible. For once, they made Bush sound smarter! Dubya made some boring statement that India and China are putting pressure on Earth's resources and surprise, some nutcases like the Defense minister have managed to get their 15 minutes of fame on the idiot box.

How difficult is it to grasp the fact that a billion people eating more and crucially producing less food, will put pressure on the prices? Really, isn't India, one of the world's most under-performing nations in agriculture? yeah, this year we might have a bumper crop. But what is the threshold for bumper anyway? India, right now has bans on the export of many food products. Obviously it isn't helping the global food prices.

And isn't it also true that India's changing food habits will have its consequences? For starters, Indian children are among the most mal-nourished in the world. We ofcourse want that situation to change and hence will inevitably consume more and diverse crops which India may or may not produce enough itself.

Indians are also abandoning vegetarianism pretty fast. When a billion people take to the habit of regularly eating stuff that high in the food chain, there'll be a crisis. Imagine the amount of food a meat eater consumes every meal, roughly the equivalent of all food that creature consumed in a lifetime! When your food eats my food, we both'll end up with no food at some point. To give an historical perspective, the last time Indians assaulted animal world in this fashion, Hinduism was born! (at the expense of vedic-Brahmanism.)

India is also one of the greatest polluters of the world. (3rd largest, if I'm not too wrong.) But we give the usual BS that Indians per-capita pollute less than the western world and hence will do nothing on the emissions front. The poor Indian whom India has ill-fed, treated brutally in the name of caste and has effectively abandoned in the recent economic upswing, bails us out by sharing our pollution expense. Wow, welcome to Indian socialism!