US Election prediction: Trump will win

I've taken a break from most social media. And I had stopped following US politics before Elon Musk got involved in the election cycle.

Still here's my prediction: Trump will win.

Here are my reasons:

1. If you follow news on Twitter, there are lots of credible polls that suggest Trump will get an electoral college win. There are also pollsters like Atlas Intel and Emerson who predict Trump winning every swing state. Some of the cautious observors like Mike Halperin and Robert Cahaly also think Trump will win, even if they rule out a 7 swing state sweep for Trump. Even seemingly "mainstream" polls suggest a tie or small Harris leads well within the margin of error.

2. Then there is early voting numbers. Republicans have massively changed their game and have put effort into early voting. This is in stark contrast to 2022, where they foolishly let Democrats repeat the vote by mail circus and failed to win the Senate.

3. I don't think Elon Musk will stick his neck out like this, only to lose. Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg have also tried to play safe. [All credible] Polls are unanimous - Trump has the edge. And Peter Thiel, who I believe is heavily involved in Trump's campaign, will not make the 2022 mistake again.

Why I and many others could go wrong:

1. Elections cannot be won when a huge voting population is livid. Women are still furious about the US Supreme Court setting Roe v Wade aside. Trump should have had a woman running mate. I have long suggested Joni Ernst. JD Vance brings zero new votes to Trump but infuritates women further. I don't think this pro-abortion vote is a game changer, but if Harris wins, it'll be because of this women vote.

Will Trump's second term be good?

As I joked few months ago, I don't want MAGA. I don't want "America" to become great again. I want MAMI. Modify America with Mass Immigration. I want USA to remain an economic colony (like Australia) without geopolitical hegemony.
Trump's presidency was one of the best for the world, because he did not start new wars and pursued peace to a large extent (Abraham accord, North Korea etc). But his policy towards Palestine is a red flag. I don't think Trump will even do lip service to Free Palestine and instead allow Israel to continue its genocide in Gaza. Israel has no right to exist and every Zionist occupying Palestine must be sent back to the countries they came from. It's possible Democrats embrace the Free Palestine cause more to spite President Trump, but I'm not too optimistic.
Also, the idea that USA should have tighter immigration is just wrong. USA is a colony and Americans (I mean those in Central and Latin America) should have the right to the lands and wealth of USA, even if its the white colonialists who created the wealth.

Let's see what the future and Tuesday have in store.